The Institute of German Economy (IW) in Cologne has revised its forecast for the labor shortage in Germany. According to new calculations, by 2036, the shortage of workers could reach 4.3 million people. This is significantly higher than the previous estimate. Just last year, experts predicted a deficit of around three million workers. The main reason for the worsening situation is the mass retirement of baby boomers — people born between 1954 and 1969. This age group includes nearly 20 million residents of Germany, [writes](https://www.dw.com/ru/ekonomisty-deficit-rabocej-sily-v-germanii-k-2036-godu-vyrastet-na-43-mln/a-77570173) DW. About a quarter of them have already reached retirement age. The rest will gradually leave the labor market by 2036. At the same time, the younger generation will not be able to fully compensate for the loss of workers. According to researchers, the working-age population of the country will decrease by about 7% to around 51 million people. Experts note that demographic changes are happening faster than previously expected. Against this backdrop, Germany risks facing serious problems in the economy and social sphere. "In just a few years, the economy will lack workers to maintain the current level of prosperity and the existing model of the welfare state," said Holger Schäfer, an expert at the Institute of German Economy. In his opinion, to mitigate the consequences, it is necessary to encourage longer working lives among citizens and to actively attract qualified specialists from abroad. At the same time, the institute has downgraded its forecast for the total population of Germany. If it was previously expected that around 85 million people would live in the country by 2040, the forecast has now been reduced to 82 million. Economists warn that without additional measures, the shortage of workers could affect almost all sectors — from industry and construction to healthcare and social services. Population aging is becoming one of the main challenges for the largest economy in Europe. To avoid a large-scale labor crisis, Germany will have to simultaneously increase employment among its own citizens and more actively compete for qualified workers in the international labor market.