Moreover, the demographic milestone was reached earlier than some previous forecasts suggested. This is due to two global processes: people are living longer, and fewer children are being born. Not long ago, the planet's population was rapidly increasing primarily due to high birth rates. Now, the situation is changing. More and more countries are facing not an excess of young people, but a shortage of new generations capable of replacing the older ones. ### Fewer Children One of the main indicators is the total fertility rate. For simple population replacement, about 2.1 children per woman is usually required. However, more and more countries are falling below this mark. According to data provided by Axios, about 71% of the world's population now lives in countries with birth rates not exceeding the level of simple reproduction. Just ten years ago, the share of the population in such countries was approximately 45%. Moreover, low birth rates have long ceased to be solely a European or Japanese problem. The largest countries in Asia and Latin America have also recorded figures below the replacement level. The changes are particularly noticeable in China, where, after decades of birth control policies, authorities are now trying to encourage families to have more children. Low birth rates are also faced by India, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam. ### Two Billion Elderly At the same time, humanity is becoming significantly more long-lived. Improvements in medicine, sanitary conditions, and quality of life have allowed millions of people to live to an age that was considered exceptional just a few generations ago. According to projections by the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of people over 65 may increase from the current 852 million to **two billion by 2060**. This means that elderly people will make up an increasingly significant part of the planet's population. Aging is progressing particularly rapidly in East Asia and Europe. Japan has long been one of the most prominent examples of a society with a high proportion of elderly citizens. South Korea is simultaneously facing extremely low birth rates. China is also quickly approaching a situation where the decline in the working-age population will become one of the most important economic factors. ### Who Will Work and Pay Pensions? The consequences of this demographic shift could be enormous. The pension systems of most countries were created in conditions where the number of working people was significantly greater than that of pensioners. Now, this ratio is changing. A smaller number of workers will have to support the economy, pay taxes, and finance pensions and medical care for the growing number of elderly people. Governments will have to decide whether to raise the retirement age, increase taxes, attract migrants, or stimulate birth rates. The labor market will also change. A shortage of workers may accelerate automation and the implementation of artificial intelligence. At the same time, employers will have to actively retain older employees. ### Even Spending Habits Will Change An aging population can change entire sectors of the economy. Demand will grow for medicine, pharmaceuticals, elderly care, rehabilitation, and housing adapted for older people. Conversely, in countries with particularly low birth rates, the need for kindergartens and schools may decrease. Some states are already facing the closure of educational institutions due to a lack of children. The structure of cities is even changing: instead of building new schools, authorities have to think about medical facilities, accessible public transport, and infrastructure for the elderly. ### The World is Entering a Completely New Era The demographic turning point does not mean that the Earth's population will immediately begin to decline sharply. In some regions, primarily in Africa, the population remains very young and continues to grow rapidly. Therefore, the 21st century may face an unusual demographic contrast: some states will be looking for workers and trying to convince citizens to have more children, while others will continue to cope with the rapid growth of their young populations. But the overall global trend is already changing. **For the first time, there are more people over 65 than children under five.** And this is not just an interesting statistical milestone. In fact, humanity is entering an era where one of the main economic and social problems will no longer be rapid population growth, but its aging.
