To double Latvia's economy by 2035, an average annual growth of 3.8% is required, while the baseline forecast of the Ministry of Economics only provides for 2.4%. This was stated by the Deputy State Secretary of the ministry, Janis Salmins, at a meeting of the Saeima Economic Commission. According to him, doubling the economy is not a forecast but a goal, the achievement of which depends on political decisions and the country's ability to create new sources of growth. The baseline scenario reflects the development of the economy under current trends. The Ministry of Economics notes that under the baseline scenario, the lack of new competitive advantages will continue to limit exports, while the main driver of the economy will remain slowly growing domestic demand. The target scenario assumes that Latvia's competitiveness will be built on technological development, increased productivity, and innovation. Bank of Latvia economist Martins Bitans stated that the central bank's assessments generally align with the ministry's calculations. He noted that without serious structural reforms, Latvia's economy will only be able to grow by 2–3% per year in the medium term. "We will be able to rejoice at a 3% growth at best," Bitans emphasized, pointing out that achieving a 5% growth without radical changes is impossible. According to the Bank of Latvia, accelerating economic growth requires a change in the structure of the economy and exports. State support, Bitans believes, should be focused on companies capable of significantly increasing labor productivity and becoming growth drivers. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economics, to implement the target scenario by 2035, an additional €35 billion in investments in fixed capital and €90 billion in additional exports compared to the baseline scenario will be required. In total, over ten years, the volume of necessary investments is estimated at €175 billion, of which €43 billion should come from state investments. The remaining part, according to Salmins, should be provided by the private sector. At the same time, budgetary opportunities remain limited. According to the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal space in the coming years will be negative: minus €28 million in 2027, €279.1 million in 2028, €237.8 million in 2029, and €936.2 million in 2030. The Ministry of Finance also forecasts an increase in the budget deficit from 2.9% of GDP this year to 4.2% in 2027 and 5.4% in 2028. The main reason will be the slowdown in economic growth and, consequently, a decrease in tax revenues. According to the ministry's forecasts, the national debt, which currently stands at about 48% of GDP, will gradually increase to approximately 54% of GDP after 2029. The Ministry of Economics emphasizes that the role of the state is to create conditions for growth; however, the main driver of doubling the economy should be private capital. According to the ministry's estimates, productivity growth today is ensured by relatively few enterprises. Less than 1% of companies — about 500 enterprises — account for half of the positive contribution to the economy's productivity, while 1,500 companies provide two-thirds of its growth. The export base of the economy consists of about 5,300 enterprises; however, Latvia still lacks large players. Among the 50 largest companies in the Baltic States, only seven represent Latvia, while Lithuania has 28 companies and Estonia has 15. Therefore, one of the main priorities of the Ministry of Economics will be business scaling. The ministry intends to increase the number of companies with a turnover of over €50 million from the current 209 to 279. According to the ministry's calculations, this will allow for an increase in their total turnover by €8.5 billion and added value by €1.65 billion. Another priority will be to reduce bureaucratic burdens, primarily for small businesses. The ministry believes that it is necessary not only to cancel individual requirements but to significantly simplify regulation, especially for entrepreneurs in the regions.
