According to long-term models, winter weather in different parts of Europe may vary significantly. In a substantial area of the continent, less snow is expected than usual, while a more stable snow cover is likely in the mountains, as well as in the north and northeast of Europe. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which the surface water temperature in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean becomes higher than normal. Despite its considerable distance, this phenomenon can influence atmospheric circulation and precipitation distribution in other regions of the world. According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño may significantly strengthen in the second half of 2026 and is likely to persist until February 2027. At the same time, experts warn that the effects of this phenomenon vary by region, so seasonal forecasts should not be perceived as an accurate description of the weather in a specific area. ## ## Less Snow Expected in Europe According to current calculations, the most noticeable snow deficit may occur in the plains and lowland areas of Europe. In the mountains, as well as in the northern and northeastern parts of the continent, the situation may be different. Particularly favorable conditions for stable snow cover are forecasted in the high-altitude areas of the Alps. At elevations of approximately 1800–2000 meters, the combination of temperature and precipitation may allow the snow to remain for a significantly longer time. ## ## Rain Instead of Snow Possible in December At the beginning of winter, much of the European plains may receive less snow than normal. One of the reasons may be the strengthening of westerly and southwesterly air flows, which, along with precipitation, will bring relatively warm air. As a result, in many places, rain or wet snow may fall instead of snow, and the formed snow cover will melt quickly. In the far north of Europe, lower temperatures, on the contrary, will allow the snow to remain longer. ## ## January May Not Change the Overall Picture In January, the current models also do not show a sharp transition to snowy and frosty weather in most of Europe. In southern regions, areas of high pressure may prevail, while the western transport of air masses will continue to play a significant role in the rest of the territory. In some regions, temperatures may remain above the climatic norm for an extended period. At the same time, the north and northeast of Europe have a greater chance of cold and snowy weather. ## ## In February, the Contrast May Intensify By February, the snow deficit in some regions may become even more noticeable. If areas of high pressure persist for a long time, the amount of precipitation will decrease, along with the likelihood of snowfall. A particularly pronounced snow deficit is possible in Central, Western, Northwestern, and Southern Europe. In the north and northeast, on the contrary, the likelihood of snowfall may be higher. ## ## What Awaits Latvia? The long-term forecast for Europe does not yet allow for a conclusion that Latvia will experience a warm and snowless winter. Many factors influence local weather, and it is impossible to reliably determine either the amount of snow or the duration of frost periods over several months. Even if the average snow in Europe is below normal, Latvia may still experience individual strong cold spells and heavy snowfalls. Moreover, the expression "less snow than normal" does not mean a completely snowless winter. It refers to the total amount of snow and the duration of snow cover compared to long-term averages. Even after a heavy snowfall, a slight warming can quickly melt the fallen snow. Thus, the current long-term forecasts only provide a general idea of possible developments. The winter of 2026/2027 in Europe may turn out to be very heterogeneous: in some regions, there will be noticeably less snow than usual, while in others, quite traditional winter weather will persist.
