Speaking in the Polish parliament on September 17, Tusk stated that Warsaw has information about Russia's possible preparations for new forms of pressure on European states. According to the Polish Prime Minister, this could involve drone or missile strikes on countries that provide military and political support to Ukraine. Tusk emphasized that such incidents could be presented by Moscow as "accidental." In his assessment, the goal of such tactics is to test NATO's response and attempt to weaken the readiness of alliance countries to use the collective defense mechanisms provided for in the treaty in the event of an attack on one of the allies. ## Poland strengthens readiness The warning came against the backdrop of a series of incidents at the Polish-Ukrainian border and new Russian strikes on western regions of Ukraine. On September 17, Poland scrambled military aircraft in response to a massive Russian attack on Ukraine. Some strikes occurred in close proximity to Polish territory, although no violations of Polish airspace were recorded. On September 13, Tusk had already warned that the coming weeks and months could become a period of intensified Russian actions and that Poland could not rule out the escalation spreading to its own territory. After a strike approximately two kilometers from the Polish-Ukrainian border, authorities put relevant services on heightened alert. ## Drones become a separate threat Polish authorities are particularly concerned about the use of faster jet drones, which are harder to detect and intercept. According to AP, Tusk referred to information obtained from Poland's intelligence agencies, NATO allies, Ukraine, and the United States. The Polish side also expects an increase in Russian attacks on logistical infrastructure and routes used to support Ukraine. The last few weeks have already been marked by a number of dangerous episodes on NATO's eastern flank. In Lithuania, an Italian NATO fighter jet [shot down](https://lat.bb.lv/raksts/pasaule/2026/09/16/nauseda-lietuva-notriektais-bezpilota-lidaparats-bija-krievijas-drons-gerbera-113447) a Russian drone of the "Gerbera" type, which, according to Lithuanian authorities, may have deviated from its course en route to Ukraine. Finland, at the same time, is enhancing its readiness to protect underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea and conducting inspections of vessels in case of sabotage attempts. ## What does “hybrid attack” mean Hybrid actions are generally understood to be operations that fall below the threshold of open military aggression: sabotage, cyberattacks, airspace violations, damage to infrastructure, the use of drones, and information operations. This format creates a particularly complex situation for NATO, as allies must determine whether a specific episode is an accident, a provocation, or a deliberate attack. Against the backdrop of such incidents, the European Commission proposed creating a common European mechanism for responding to hybrid threats — a kind of unified action scenario in the event of sabotage, drone attacks, and other incidents that do not yet reach the level of open war. ## Why this is important for the Baltic states For Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, Tusk's statement is particularly sensitive due to their geographical position on NATO's eastern flank. The region is already facing drones, damage to underwater cables, suspicions of sabotage, and other incidents that European authorities associate with growing hybrid activity. At the same time, there is no publicly presented evidence that Moscow has already decided to carry out deliberate strikes on NATO territory. Tusk's statement represents an assessment by Polish authorities and intelligence services. Russia has previously rejected accusations from European countries of conducting hybrid operations. Donald Tusk's warning shows that European governments are increasingly considering a scenario in which the next phase of confrontation with Russia may not take the form of open aggression, but rather through incidents whose origins and intentions are difficult to prove immediately. It is this uncertainty — whether it is an "accident" or a deliberate attack — that may become the main test for NATO's unity.
