The question of a possible escalation from Russia has once again come to the forefront after statements from several European politicians and intelligence leaders. However, representatives from the Baltic states urge to distinguish between long-term threats and immediate military danger, writes [tv3.lv](https://tv3.lv/zinas/arvalstis/vdd-vaditajs-neredzam-pazimes-par-tuliteju-krievijas-uzbrukumu-nato/). According to The Guardian, Normunds Mezviets, the Director General of the State Security Service of Latvia, stated that the security service currently does not observe signs of an immediate Russian attack on NATO territory. > “We do not see signs of an immediate attack,” said Mezviets. He noted, however, that Russia is indeed preparing for more active actions in Europe, but it cannot yet be definitively said whether these preparations are linked to specific military plans or are part of a broader strategy to spread fear and uncertainty in Western societies. ## Why the topic has become relevant again The discussion intensified after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that intelligence assessments suggest Russia may attempt to test NATO's readiness for collective defense, including through missile or drone strikes. Later, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that he considers such warnings justified. At the same time, assessments from European intelligence agencies vary in their degree of caution. For instance, Michal Koudelka, the Director of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), suggested that in the coming months, Russia may attempt to organize a limited provocation, a false flag operation, or a large-scale influence campaign against NATO countries. He emphasized that European structures are working to prevent such scenarios. ## The main threat — hybrid operations According to the head of the State Security Service of Latvia, there are currently more grounds to expect not a direct military invasion, but an expansion of hybrid actions. Mezviets noted that Russian structures are showing increased interest in objects related to supporting Ukraine, including railway infrastructure and defense industry enterprises. A similar assessment was given by Thomas Nilsson, head of the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service. He described the recent incident at Leipzig Airport, which German authorities associate with possible activities of Russian intelligence services, as alarming, noting that such cases may indicate a change in the nature of hybrid operations. ## Peace negotiations raise skepticism European intelligence leaders have also expressed doubts about whether Russia is currently genuinely ready for substantive peace negotiations regarding Ukraine. According to Thomas Nilsson, Moscow is still showing few signs of a desire for a real cessation of hostilities and is rather continuing to rely on achieving its goals through military means. ## What this assessment means The overall conclusion drawn by security service representatives is that security threats to Europe remain, but the Latvian security service currently sees no immediate signs of an impending military attack on NATO countries. At the same time, citizens are urged to remain vigilant, critically assess information, and not succumb to panic, as the spread of fear itself may be one of the goals of hybrid operations. European intelligence assessments differ in details, but they converge on one point: hybrid threats remain relevant, and there are currently no grounds to speak of an inevitable military attack on NATO.
