According to European ministers, the most immediate threat is now not related to a full-scale attack on NATO territory, but to operations that are difficult to immediately attribute to a specific perpetrator: cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, airspace violations, and other actions. "Europe is facing a rapid spread of sabotage attacks and airspace violations," said the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas. In her opinion, this is how Moscow is trying to intimidate European countries and reduce their support for Ukraine. Kallas believes that the response should be to increase economic pressure on Russia, including further restrictions against the Russian defense industry and the so-called shadow fleet. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski went even further in a conversation with Reuters, stating that we are now talking not only about threats. He listed arson, explosions, the appearance of drones, and airspace violations. In particular, Polish military officials reported that a Russian Mi-8 military helicopter briefly entered Polish airspace from the Kaliningrad region. According to Sikorski, Polish F-16s are now taking to the skies "almost every day," as the military cannot know in advance whether an approaching drone or missile poses an immediate threat. Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Cimpeanu also reported numerous air incidents. According to her, since the beginning of intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian targets in the Danube and Black Sea regions, more than a hundred cases of drones or their debris appearing on Romanian territory have been recorded. At the same time, Cimpeanu emphasized an important detail: Bucharest does not have information indicating that Russia specifically chose Romania as a target for these attacks. However, according to Romanian authorities, this does not absolve Moscow of responsibility for the risks created. The most restrained assessment of the situation was given by Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. In an interview with Reuters, he stated that discussions about an allegedly inevitable Russian attack on NATO do not currently align with the information available to Tallinn. "We do not see that Russia is capable or even preparing for any active military aggression against NATO or European countries," Tsahkna stated. In his opinion, a significant part of Russian activity is primarily aimed at creating fear of further escalation and dividing Western societies. While the main Russian forces are engaged in Ukraine, Moscow, according to Estonia's assessment, does not have the necessary capabilities for a direct large-scale military operation against NATO. At the same time, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys warned that intelligence data from allies indicates another risk — the possible geographical expansion of hybrid operations, including attacks against critical infrastructure in NATO states. According to Budrys, the approaching winter will be a particularly serious test. The Lithuanian minister believes that Russia will again attempt to maximize strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, turning the cold into an additional tool of pressure. Representatives of European countries are calling for a response to hybrid activity through strengthening deterrence, coordination among allies, and maintaining support for Ukraine. Thus, European ministers' assessments divide into two threats: they do not expect a direct Russian military attack on NATO in the near future, but believe that sabotage, cyberattacks, airspace violations, and other hybrid operations are becoming an increasingly serious problem for Europe.
