This is stated in a new threat assessment from Russia prepared by the Danish Military Intelligence Service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE). ### The Risk is Growing FE notes that the security situation continues to deteriorate. According to the Danish intelligence assessment, Russia has intensified its use of sabotage and destructive cyberattacks, and has become more risk-prone. As one example, FE cites the incident on September 14, 2026, near Gedser, Denmark, when, according to the document, a Russian frigate fired warning rockets in the direction of a Danish military helicopter. The Danish intelligence describes this episode as the most serious faced by the country's military units so far. FE also considers it likely that Russian hybrid activity will further intensify in the coming months. This could involve more frequent attacks with more serious consequences — in particular, destructive cyberattacks on critical societal functions and high-risk sabotage. ### What Scenarios Does Intelligence Consider A separate section of the report is dedicated to the possibility of a limited military attack on one or several NATO countries that share a border with Russia. “There is a low but growing risk that Russia will undertake a limited military attack,” the FE assessment states. Such a scenario, according to Danish intelligence, is possible even if the war in Ukraine continues and Russia does not yet possess the forces necessary for conducting a regional war against NATO. FE admits that a limited attack could potentially occur within the **next few months**. One option mentioned by intelligence is single strikes with long-range weapons on infrastructure that plays a role in aiding Ukraine. After this, Moscow, analysts at FE suggest, could claim that munitions entered NATO territory due to the impact of Ukrainian electronic warfare assets. The scenario of a false flag operation is also considered — for example, using Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO country. Another option is the deployment of a limited number of troops, including those without national insignia, into the territory of a NATO state bordering Russia. At the same time, FE believes that such an operation would likely be preceded by an increase in Russian regular forces at the border to prepare for a possible NATO response. Such preparation would take several months and, according to intelligence, would be difficult to conceal. ### Why Russia Might Need This The presumed goal of a limited attack, according to FE, is an attempt to force European states to redirect resources from supporting Ukraine to their own security, as well as to test the unity of the North Atlantic Alliance. Intelligence believes that Russia would likely only undertake a military attack if it assumed that it would not lead to war with all of NATO. A particularly important factor, according to FE, is the possible assessment by Moscow of the position of the United States — that is, the confidence of the Russian leadership that Washington would not be able or willing to support European allies in the event of a conflict. ### No Expectations of a Full-Scale Invasion Yet At the same time, Danish intelligence emphasizes the fundamental difference between a limited attack and a full-scale invasion. FE still sees no signs that Russia intends to initiate a full-scale military invasion with regular troops into one or several NATO countries. Even if such a decision were made, Russia would need at least six months to prepare and deploy the necessary forces, according to intelligence. FE considers such a scenario unlikely, although it does not completely rule it out. At the same time, earlier assessments by Danish intelligence remain in force: under certain conditions, Russia is capable of preparing for a local war against a neighboring state in about six months, creating a real threat to several NATO countries in about two years, and being ready for a regional war in the Baltic region in about five years — preparing for a large-scale war on the European continent. The new FE assessment addresses another risk: the possibility of significantly increasing pressure on the West in the coming months — through more serious hybrid operations or a limited military attack, without transitioning to a full-scale war with NATO. Thus, Danish intelligence currently sees no signs of preparation for a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO countries. However, the very possibility of a limited military attack, which FE considers “low but growing,” is already viewed as a real scenario for the coming months. The main danger, according to intelligence, is that such an operation could be aimed at testing NATO's unity and the allies' ability to provide a joint response.
