According to the data from the exit poll, the "United List" may receive 35.6% of the votes, significantly ahead of the other participants in the election. Preliminary exit poll data also indicate that five other political forces have crossed the five percent threshold. The party "Latvia First" could have received 11.3% of the votes, "Progressives" — 11.1%, the coalition "Sovereign Power"/"Young Latvians" — 10.8%, the National Alliance — 8.7%, and "New Unity" — 6.7%. At the same time, according to the survey results, the Union of Greens and Farmers (3.7%), "For the Development of Latvia" (3.1%), and "We Change the Rules" (3.0%) remain outside the parliament. Other parties received less than 2% of the votes. It is important to note that the exit poll is a forecast, not the official election result. It is based on surveys of voters after voting and usually reflects the balance of power quite accurately, but it does not replace the counting of ballots. The study involved more than 6,500 voters surveyed near more than 70 polling stations across the country. The SKDS research center provided methodological support for the project. About 30% of participants refused to disclose whom they voted for, the same percentage as in the previous elections. The authors of the study note that particularly high refusal rates were recorded in Zemgale, where the Union of Greens and Farmers traditionally has strong support. Therefore, it is possible that the final results for some parties may differ from the exit poll data. Voters in Riga and Vidzeme were also somewhat more secretive about their choices, while respondents in Kurzeme and Latgale were more open. Another factor that may influence discrepancies with the official results is early voting. This year, 11.2% of voters voted early, and they did not participate in the exit poll. Four years ago, this figure was only 4.11%, as the opportunities for early voting were significantly more limited. According to the organizers, in the previous elections, the exit poll results for most parties differed from the official results by less than 1.5 percentage points. The largest discrepancy was recorded for the parties "New Unity" and "Progressives." The Central Election Commission promises to publish the first official results on the night of Sunday. These will determine the final composition of the new Saeima and the distribution of all 100 parliamentary mandates.
