Initially, experts expected a more moderate decline. However, further increases in component costs could intensify pressure on the industry. The main question now is how much of the additional expenses manufacturers will be able to absorb without fully passing them on to consumers. In 2026, the market was supported by advance purchases of components and the shifting of some purchases to earlier dates. But this effect may turn out to be temporary. Some users have already bought new laptops earlier than planned, so next year demand from their side may weaken. Additionally, stocks of parts purchased at previous prices are gradually being depleted. The mass segment will be particularly sensitive to rising costs. According to TrendForce, in a laptop with a recommended retail price of $900, the processor, DRAM memory, and SSD storage accounted for about 68% of the component cost in the third quarter of 2026. The price increase of these components will significantly raise the cost of the finished device. Manufacturers will have to choose between several options: raising retail prices, cutting their own profits, or offering less powerful configurations. In the latter case, savings may affect, for example, the amount of RAM. For buyers, this means that even if the price remains the same, the specifications of some models may deteriorate. The situation will also be influenced by the shortage of DRAM memory. High demand from AI servers may sustain the shortage of these components. The situation with NAND Flash may improve in the second half of 2027 when new production capacities come online. Additional costs are created by printed circuit boards, multilayer ceramic capacitors, and power management chips. Their prices and delivery times are affected by raw material prices, the distribution of production capacities, and geopolitical factors. All of this complicates the planning of device releases. The geography of production may also change. According to TrendForce, the share of laptops produced outside of China is expected to decrease from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026. In 2027, this figure may drop below 20%. If logistics and supply chain management costs continue to rise, companies may return some production capacities to China, provided that tariff pressures do not increase. The overall scale of the decline will depend on the pricing policies of manufacturers. If they manage to partially offset the rising component costs and adjust device specifications, the decline in shipments will remain moderate. But if all additional costs are passed on to buyers, the market downturn in 2027 could approach 10%.
