Foto: BB.LV / конец света
A German magazine, Der Spiegel, reminds us of an unusual prediction that is now 66 years old. Its authors are Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot from the University of Illinois. In 1960, the researchers published a paper in the journal Science dedicated to the rapid growth of the Earth's population. They discovered an intriguing pattern: for many centuries, humanity not only increased in number but the rate of this growth also accelerated. The scientists attempted to describe the process with a mathematical formula. They obtained a striking result: if the historical trend continues unchanged, around 2026, the Earth's population will approach infinity. Of course, this did not mean the literal appearance of an infinite number of people. Such a result indicated that the mathematical model reaches a point beyond which it ceases to provide physically meaningful predictions. ## ## Why Friday, November 13? Interestingly, the exact date of the supposed apocalypse was not chosen as a result of complex calculations. The calculations indicated 2026 with a certain margin of error. However, Heinz von Foerster chose the specific day with a touch of irony. Friday, November 13, was perfectly suited for a dramatic prediction: the combination of Friday and the 13th has long been considered unlucky in Western culture. Additionally, November 13 was the physicist's birthday. Thus, the mathematical hypothesis received a date worthy of a Hollywood disaster film script. ## ## Why there will be no end of the world? Over the past decades, the demographic situation has changed significantly. In the second half of the 20th century, population growth did indeed accelerate; however, subsequently, birth rates in many countries began to decline. This was influenced by urbanization, increased education levels, access to contraception, and other social changes. Today, the Earth's population is approximately 8.3 billion people. It continues to grow, but at a significantly slower rate than the extrapolation of historical trends suggested. Modern UN demographic forecasts suggest that the planet's population will peak around the mid-2080s at about 10.3 billion people, after which it will begin to gradually decline. Thus, the famous formula from 1960 turned out not to be a prediction of humanity's demise, but rather an interesting example of how unexpected the results of mathematical modeling can be. And yet, there is a pleasant side to this story. If we believe the old scientific forecast, humanity has very little time left. But if we trust modern demographics, we still have plenty of Fridays the 13th ahead of us to be properly frightened.
